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Trading Strategy

What is negative price avoidance — and how much is it worth for solar?

Negative electricity prices hit German solar hardest at midday. Here's how automated negative-price avoidance works and what it's worth per MW.

When every solar plant in a bidding zone generates at the same midday hour, supply outstrips demand and day-ahead prices can go negative. A plant that keeps feeding in during those hours is paying the market to take its power.

Negative price avoidance means forecasting those windows before they happen and reducing day-ahead nominations accordingly — then recovering value intraday when prices recover.

How the strategy works

Samawatt's AI forecasts prices and production down to the individual plant, recalibrated every 15 minutes. When a negative-price window is forecast, the engine automatically shifts volume out of day-ahead nominations for those hours.

During the day, intraday re-trading captures recovering prices, and real-time imbalance management keeps deviations off your settlement statement.

What is it worth?

For a 100 MW German solar portfolio, avoided negative-price hours plus improved intraday capture typically contribute a meaningful share of the total uplift — our illustrative model puts total additional trading revenue at around €855,000 per year. Get a personalised estimate with our revenue calculator, or request a free Revenue Opportunity Report.

Want to see this modelled on your own portfolio?

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