Imbalance costs are the silent tax on renewable portfolios: whenever actual production deviates from your nominated schedule, the TSO settles the difference at imbalance prices — usually against you.
Forecast accuracy is therefore not a vanity metric. It is the single biggest lever on imbalance cost.
The numbers
Industry-typical forecast error for wind sits around 4.8% MAE. Samawatt's turbine-level models achieve roughly 2.3%, recalibrated every 15 minutes using NWP models, satellite data and live telemetry.
For a 100 MW wind portfolio, that difference is worth on the order of €167,000 per year in avoided imbalance costs (from ~€330k/yr down to ~€163k/yr in our illustrative model).
Accuracy alone is not enough
A good forecast only pays off if you can act on it. The second half of the equation is automated intraday re-trading: when the forecast shifts, the position must be adjusted in minutes, 24/7. That's why forecasting and trading belong in one integrated system.